Overestimating Your Tolerance For Risk
Studies conducted by the American College in Pennsylvania and the University of New South Wales in Australia have found that individuals typically take greater financial risks than they think they are willing to take. This research suggests that individuals tend to be over-confident in their financial decisions. A typical moderate-risk tolerance investor might be over-exposed to equities by as much as 10 to 20 percent of his or her portfolio's assets.
Underestimating The Significance Of Risk
When we talk about investment risk, what exactly does that mean? In the end, investment risk might be best defined as obtaining some result other than what someone either needed or expected. But, given two portfolios with the same average rate of return, does risk really matter? The answer is yes. Even though, the two portfolios have the same average rate of return, the portfolio with greater risk ends up with less money.
Underestimating How Long Your Investments Must Last
When asked what he wanted to have on his tombstone, comedian Will Rogers said “100 years between the dates”. Such a thing might not be too far off. A recent program on the Discovery Science television channel discussed advances in the medical sciences. It seems that these advances are occurring at an accelerating pace. One genetics researcher at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology commented that most maladies associated with aging can be traced to five genes. He suggested that within 20 years, scientists will be able to exercise significant influence over these five genes and average life expectancy might extend to well over 100 years.
Failing To Diversify Concentrated Positions
When your grandfather died in 1970, he left you $2,500 of stock in XYZ. With the stock came a note which said, “XYZ was always good to me. Never sell it. Reinvest the dividends. It’ll be good to you, as well.” You listened to your grandfather’s advice and today it is worth over $500,000. The problem is that XYZ represents 80 percent of your liquid investments. The story above has been told over and over again. Often, a concentrated position in one stock or a few stocks is a symptom of a number of problems.
Failing To Provide Sufficient Cash Flow During Down And Flat Markets
When considering their diet, some people say that a calorie is a calorie regardless of whether it comes from protein, carbohydrate, or fat. A nutritionist will tell you differently. Total return is the sum of interest (in the case of bonds), dividends (in the case of stocks), and appreciation/depreciation in value. Some investors and investment managers will say that total return is total return regardless of whether it comes from interest, dividends, or appreciation.
They go on to say that given stocks have a larger average annual rate of total return than other asset classes over the long run, it only makes sense to gravitate towards an all-stock portfolio. From early 1997 to early 2009, the Standard & Poor’s Composite 500 Stock Index saw no appreciation. For a retiree, non-profit organization, or any other investor who is dependent on cash flow coming from their portfolio, this is not acceptable.
Overestimating The Long-Term Average Annual Rate Of Total Return From Stocks
Many market researchers and investors base their plans on a database used by Morningstar. According to this database, from December 31, 1925 to December 31, 2000, domestic large-capitalized stocks experienced an annualized rate of total return of roughly 10.8 percent. However, a longer-term data base used by Credit Suisse First Boston indicates that this total return is only 9.1 percent. This is nearly one and three-quarters percent per year lower than the figure many market researchers and investors use.
Avoiding International Securities
At the end of World War II, the United States accounted for roughly 66 percent of the world’s economic production. By the early 1990s, it accounted for about 50 percent. Today, it accounts for approximately 40 percent. It is clear that as emerging economies raise their respective standards of living to the level of developed economies, their economic growth rates must necessarily be higher than those of the developed economies. Has this higher economic growth rate presented investment opportunities?
Avoiding Alternative Asset Classes
The alternative asset classes include real estate, private equity, natural resources, and absolute return strategies. From December 31, 1989 to December 31, 2005, the benchmarks for these asset classes had risk-adjusted returns superior to that of the Standard & Poor’s Composite 500 Stock Index. In spite of this, many investors have avoided these asset classes.
Failing To Rebalance One’s Portfolio For Fear Of Taxes
Most individuals will try to avoid taxes if possible. In a rising equity market, selling stock will result in a capital gain and consequently incur an income tax liability. Understandably, this might lead an investor to simply not sell in order to avoid the tax liability. Some investors might be inclined to postpone stock sales until death, when they would receive a “step-up” in income tax basis. This can lead to unintended consequences. Without rebalancing a portfolio to the asset allocation that is appropriate to the investor’s risk tolerance, a portfolio naturally becomes more risky.
Not Being Realistic About Realizing Capital Gains
What level of realized capital gains might an investor reasonably expect? It is important to note that this is a different question than: what level of realized capital gains are an investor willing to accept? To keep a portfolio’s actual asset allocation and risk exposure relatively close to an investor’s “target” asset allocation and risk tolerance, rebalancing is necessary. While the income tax implications will vary widely from investor to investor in the early years of a rebalancing program, after seven to ten years, expected realized gains become reasonably consistent.
Failing To Tax-Wise Allocate Among Taxable and Tax-Deferred Accounts
The traditional wisdom has been to allocate growth assets in one’s retirement account to take advantage of the tax-deferral aspect of retirement accounts. While a tax overlay to asset allocation is dependent on each investor’s specific circumstances, the traditional wisdom is wrong. The concept of tax-wise allocation can be extended to different types of trusts – such as a survivor trust, a by-pass trust, an exempt marital trust, and a non-exempt marital trust. Here, too, the traditional wisdom of allocating among these trusts might no longer be valid.